- Russia’s weapons exports have fallen in the middle of the Ukraine conflict.
- France overcame Russia last year as the second largest exporter of weapons globally.
- Russian weapons manufacturers face a series of challenges that have emerged after the occupation of Ukraine.
Three years have passed since Russia’s full -scale occupation in Ukraine, and the conflict has had a profound effect on the Russian weapons industry, causing weapons exports to fall.
International Institute of Peace Research in Stockholm (SIRPI), which explores conflict and weapons, Calculate That Russian weapons exports decreased in half from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period.
Other ratings paint an even soft look.
Paul Luzin, an elderly non-residential associate at the Center for European Policies Analysis, a DC Think-tank, estimated Russian weapons exports less than $ 1 billion from January to December 2024. They had stayed at $ 14.6 billion in 2021; They fell to $ 8 billion in 2022 before falling to about $ 3 billion in 2023.
Apparently, apparently France It has surpassed Russia as the world’s second largest weapons exporter.
“We see that Russia, as a weapon exporter, has generally failed,” Luzin said last November.
The stunning fall of sales is partly the result of a change from Russian weapons producers away from export contracts and to produce more weapons for Russian military fighting in Ukraine.
What is Russia rushing to replace?
The Russian army has suffered very high losses of Matériel in the war.
The open -source intelligence website Oryx shows Russia has lost 3,773 tanks, 1,933 armor, 5,531 infantry fighter vehicles, 615 armored personnel carriers, about 2,000 artillery pieces of all kinds and many other parts of the equipment.
Since the above are only losses that can be verified through photos or videos, Oryx estimates that true Russian losses are significantly higher.
Russian weapons companies have worked overtime to replace them. (Moscow has also been entering its inventory of older, Soviet era equipment; however, 2025 may be the last year that can be relying on preserved weapons, Luzin wrote in January.)
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Uralvagonzavod factory in Russia in February 2024 Ramil Sitddikov, Sputnik, Cremlin Pool Photo through AP
Although the reliability of Russian official data is suspected, “the production of new military equipment increased significantly in 2023” as a result of internal demand, Sirpi, Rostec and Tactical Relat Corp, the two largest Russian weapons companies, seeing their combined income to increase by 40% that year.
However, this moment may not be stable.
Increased production has pressured Russian weapons companies, which face labor and financial powers and increasing costs due to sanctions imposed by Western countries, Luzi wrote. Therefore, they struggle to continue to ignite the necessary equipment and have mainly banned foreign contracts.
Where did everyone go?
Russian companies are also losing customers. In 2019, Russia sold weapons in 31 countries – in 2023, that number had dropped to 12, according to Sirpi. This is a function of supply and geopolitics chains.
Since buying weapons is often a statement of extension, some places that once bought Russian weapons have turned into western, native or other alternatives.
Moreover, due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, the preservation of Russian weapons is becoming increasingly difficult for buyers. Therefore, to protect yourself from unsafe maintenance, places are looking for safer sellers.
In Asia and Ocean, which had accounted for nearly 70% of the total exports of Russian weapons between 2018 and 2023, the US is now the largest seller. And in sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia was once the largest seller, the number one country is now held by China.
“Russia’s weapons export categories in the last two decades [have mainly] Included air protection systems, fighter jets/helicopters and their parts (including engines), and some marine systems such as oil-electric submarines, corvettes and anti-Annije missiles, “Luzin told Law School Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
However, these weapons have been far from excellent, he added.
Research published In the national interest It shows that China has begun the challenge of Russia at the low -value end of the weapon spectrum, what is known as the “weapons value market”.
At the highest end of the spectrum, South Korea has made significant advances to the detriment of Russia thanks to the rapid times of production and arms compatible with NATO.
In addition to shifting the focus of producing its weapons manufacturers, the War in Ukraine has damaged Russian weapons exports in many ways, with some of the country’s most published systems (like S-400) The test of being the most vulnerable on the battlefield rather than protected by Moscow.
The losses of the reputation are also affecting the fall of the country’s weapons exports, Luzin Business Insider told.
Further, the dependence of Russian companies on “electronic import and machinery tools in the production phase” also had an impact, he added. Access to these ingredients is more difficult to achieve due to international sanctions.
And even when the war ends, things may not turn into business as usual for the Russian weapons industry. Covering lost land will be “quite difficult if not impossible at all,” Luzin said.